Political Analyst - Elections Forecasting

About the job

Mercor connects elite creative and technical talent with leading AI research labs. Headquartered in San Francisco, our investors include Benchmark, General Catalyst, Peter Thiel, Adam D'Angelo, Larry Summers, and Jack Dorsey.

Position: Political Expert - Elections Forecasting & Political Risk

Type: Contract

Compensation: $150–$250/hour

Location: Remote

Role Responsibilities

• Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff.
• Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.
• Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact.
• Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard.
• Work independently and asynchronously to meet deadlines while improving AI model performance.

Qualifications

Must-Have

• A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst.
• A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds.
• Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis.
• 8+ years of direct experience or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance.

Preferred

• Experience with top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, or senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate, or governor races.
• Background in political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU.

Application Process (Takes 20–30 mins to complete)

• Upload resume
• AI interview based on your resume
• Submit form

Resources & Support

• For details about the interview process and platform information, please check: https://talent.docs.mercor.com/welcome
• For any help or support, reach out to: support@mercor.com

PS: Our team reviews applications daily. Please complete your AI interview and application steps to be considered for this opportunity.