Modeling Supervisor

The Modeling Supervisor leads the day-to-day technical operations for the California Department of Public Health (CDPH)'s influenza modeling and forecasting network site, established under the CDC Network of Influenza Modeling and Forecasting Centers cooperative agreement. This position is responsible for the scientific and operational integrity of CDPH's national-scale forecasting pipeline, including expansion of an existing California-based forecasting ensemble to all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories. The Modeling Supervisor works under the direct supervision of the Principal Investigator and translates the Principal Investigator's strategic direction into an executable technical program, directly supervises the Influenza Modeler, and serves as the primary technical point of contact with the CDC-coordinated network of influenza modeling and forecasting centers.

Applicants must submit a cover letter and resume to be considered.

The salary range for this position is $120,000-$140,000 annually depending on experience and qualifications.

ESSENTIAL FUNCTIONS

• Lead development, validation, and ongoing maintenance of CDPH's influenza forecasting ensemble, including extension of the existing California-focused pipeline to full national and sub-national coverage, with weekly real-time submission to the FluSight collaborative hub throughout each forecasting season.
• Direct research activities characterizing real-time forecast uncertainty and reliability, including forecastability metrics, method-of-analogues frameworks, and evaluation of novel data sources and human judgment forecasting approaches.
• Supervise and mentor the Influenza Modeler, including assignment and review of technical work, professional development, and day-to-day operational guidance.
• Represent CDPH's technical program in CDC-convened network meetings and collaborative exercises, and coordinate monthly sharing of findings, code, and methodological updates with network partners and CDC.
• Contribute to peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and public-facing communication products documenting forecasting methods and results.
• Collaborate with other members of CDPH’s Decision Intelligence team to translate technical forecast outputs and uncertainty signals into products usable by local health jurisdictions, including via the California Communicable Disease Assessment Tool (CalCAT).
• Support the Principal Investigator in preparation of annual performance reports, work plan updates, and evaluation deliverables required under the cooperative agreement.
• Maintain and enforce open-source code practices for all forecasting and modeling tools developed under the award, including documentation standards for public repositories.

NON-ESSENTIAL FUNCTIONS

Coordinate and facilitate teleconferences and meetings, as required.

Perform other duties as directed by the Principal Investigator.

JOB QUALIFICATIONS

• Demonstrated ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing with public health and healthcare professionals and internal partners.
• Ability to supervise and oversee forecasting and modeling with technical and methodological rigor.
• Knowledge and application of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) requirements and protection of health information.
• Strong knowledge of influenza epidemiology and ability to interpret trends in the data.
• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills.
• Experience with a breadth of infectious disease modeling methodologies.
• Ability to make time sensitive decisions in complex situations.
• Ability to prioritize, delegate and manage multiple tasks.
• Demonstrate reliability and integrity.
• Fluency in English, spoken and written.

Education/Experience

• Doctoral degree (PhD) in epidemiology, biostatistics, computational biology, applied mathematics, or a closely related quantitative field, or equivalent combination of advanced training and experience, required.
• At least four years of experience working as an epidemiologist or research scientist in a public health setting, required.
• At least eight years of experience working as an epidemiologist or research scientist in a public health setting, preferred.
• Demonstrated supervisory or project leadership experience, including the ability to manage technical staff and competing deliverables under deadline pressure, required.
• Demonstrated experience developing and evaluating real-time infectious disease forecasting or modeling methods, including ensemble or time-series approaches, and proficiency in statistical programming (R and/or Python) for production-level pipelines and reproducible research, required.
• Experience contributing to collaborative forecasting or modeling hubs (e.g., FluSight, the Flu Scenario Modeling Hub, or comparable infectious disease forecasting collaboratives), required.
• Track record of peer-reviewed publication in infectious disease modeling, forecasting, or a related applied quantitative field, and strong written and verbal communication skills for non-technical audiences, required.
• Experience with influenza-specific surveillance data sources (e.g., NHSN hospitalization data, ILINet, state immunization information systems) and familiarity with uncertainty quantification methods relevant to time-series forecasting, such as the method of analogues or spectral entropy, preferred.
• Experience working within a state, local, or federal public health agency, or in direct partnership with such an agency, preferred.
• Familiarity with open-source scientific software development practices, including version control and public code repositories (e.g., GitHub), preferred.
• Advanced knowledge and use of statistical software, such as R or Python, required.

Certificates/Licenses/Clearances

• None

Other Skills, Knowledge, and Abilities

• Knowledge of and skilled in the use of Microsoft 365 and GSuite products.

PHYSICAL DEMANDS

Stand Occasionally

Walk Occasionally

Sit Constantly

Handling / Fingering Occasionally

Reach Outward Occasionally

Reach Above Shoulder Occasionally

Climb, Crawl, Kneel, Bend Occasionally

Lift / Carry Occasionally - Up to 30 lbs

Push/Pull Occasionally - Up to 30 lbs

See Constantly

Taste/ Smell Not Applicable

Not Applicable Not required for essential functions

Occasionally (0 - 2 hrs/day)

Frequently (2 - 5 hrs/day)

Constantly (5+ hrs/day)

WORK ENVIRONMENT

Remote. Must have Wi-Fi/internet access.

EEOC STATEMENT

It is the policy of Heluna Health to provide equal employment opportunities to all employees and applicants, without regard to age (40 and over), national origin or ancestry, race, color, religion, sex, gender, sexual orientation, pregnancy or perceived pregnancy, reproductive health decision making, physical or mental disability, medical condition (including cancer or a record or history of cancer), AIDS or HIV, genetic information or characteristics, veteran status or military service.